Despite winning the Ondo South Senatorial by-election held last weekend, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is said to be worried about its performance in the poll, with party national leaders reportedly reviewing the outcome as part of preparations for the 2027 general election.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) conducted by-elections in six states. The APC won five of the contests, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) retained the Rivers South East Senatorial seat through its candidate, Olaka Nwogu.
In Ondo South, former President of the Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), Prof. Dayo Faduyile, won the election with 68,474 votes, defeating the Allied People’s Movement (APM) candidate, Adeolu Akinwumi, who polled 1,411 votes.
Party sources revealed that the by-elections, alongside the recent Ekiti governorship election and the forthcoming August 15 Osun governorship poll, are being treated by the APC as indicators of its readiness for the 2027 elections.
A source at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the leadership had begun a comprehensive review of the elections to identify strengths and areas requiring improvement.
According to the source, the Ondo South result attracted particular attention because of the low voter turnout, despite the district being the senatorial district of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa and the APC facing no formidable opposition.
The source noted that fewer than 70,000 votes were cast by all parties, compared with the 2023 senatorial election in which the APC candidate, Jimoh Ibrahim, secured 110,665 votes while the PDP’s Agboola Ajayi polled 65,784 votes.
The source also compared the Ondo South figures with the Enugu North Senatorial by-election, where the APC scored 162,360 votes against the PDP’s 9,299.
He noted that although the APC lost the Enugu North seat in 2023, voter turnout in the recent by-election remained close to that of the previous general election.
“The party’s target is to surpass its 2023 presidential vote, particularly in the Southwest. Ondo gave President Bola Ahmed Tinubu the highest percentage of votes in the region in 2023. With the turnout recorded in the by-election, there are concerns about whether the party can improve on the 369,924 votes Tinubu secured in the state during the presidential election,” the source said.
Another APC chieftain in Ondo, who also requested anonymity, said the by-election exposed cracks within the party. He accused Governor Aiyedatiwa of not doing enough to unite party stakeholders, alleging that comments by some of the governor’s loyalists about “retiring” some party leaders had alienated influential members.
He also cited the violence that marred the party’s congresses in Akure, saying some victims had yet to recover.
The source warned that the APC must close ranks ahead of 2027, especially now that the former Senator Nicholas Tofowomo is the Ondo South senatorial candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
But the APC Secretary in Ondo West Local Government, Comrade Omololu Abel, dismissed claims that the by-election signalled declining support for President Tinubu ahead of 2027.
In a statement posted on his Facebook page, Abel argued that comparing the by-election with the 2023 general election was misleading because the presidential and National Assembly elections held simultaneously in 2023 naturally produced higher voter turnout.
He added that fewer political parties contested the by-election, making direct comparisons statistically flawed, and stressed that off-cycle by-elections traditionally record lower participation and should not be used to gauge the APC’s electoral strength ahead of the next presidential election.
